Severe drought in Europe has sunk river water levels to record lows and dragged on the movement of chemicals and other goods. Chemical firms including BASF, Covestro and Evonik have large facilities sited on the Rhine, using barges to move chemicals in and out, as well as providing water to cool various process plants.
‘Conditions once regarded as exceptional are becoming increasingly frequent features of a changed climate,’ says logistics consultant Hans Vermij at Haskoning in the Netherlands. ‘We need to rethink how we manage the Rhine in the longer term.’
Rhine water levels at Kaub, Germany, hit a historic low of 14cm above the local zero point – corresponding to an actual channel depth of around 1.3m – in early August, undercutting the previous record of 25cm recorded during the 2018 drought. Kaub is the narrowest and shallowest point of the Middle Rhine and poses a safety risk for barges at such low water levels. ‘There is an expectation that after Kaub, in the direction of Mainz, you won’t be able to sail anymore,’ says Vermij. Such restrictions would critically affect BASF’s main Ludwigshafen site, which lies south of Kaub, making it challenging for barge traffic moving to and from the ports of Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Antwerp in Belgium.
Low river levels restrict freight volumes long before they stop traffic. ‘Vessels must adapt their operations to the available water depth by reducing their [draught depth] and cargo load,’ Vermij explains. ‘As water levels decrease, ships carry less cargo, which can increase transport costs.’ Navigation is usually decided by barge operators and will continue so long as it is safe.
A BASF spokesperson said: ‘We are making every effort to support the supply of key raw materials by using alternative modes of transport such as trucks and rail. In isolated cases, the continuation of the current weather conditions has led to supply constraints.’ Examples of contracts being cancelled include LyondellBasell for butadiene out of Wesseling in July, BASF for surfactant supplies in early August, and Covestro for polyether polyols from its Dormagen site.
Conditions once regarded as exceptional are becoming increasingly frequent features of a changed climate
Road and rail transport are viable alternatives for some products, and German authorities have tried to ease the situation by allowing lorry traffic on Sundays. Ludwigshafen is linked to its sites in Schwarzheide, Germany, and Antwerp by rail and moves 30% of its goods that way. But it is tough for industry to replace the 360 vessels carrying 3000 tonnes each on one section of the Rhine each day. That is equal to around 360 freight trains or 5500 trucks per day, says Vermij. Road and rail transport can cost two to three times more than usual during this period of high demand.
Hardest hit are liquid and gaseous shipments of commodity chemicals – such as methanol, ammonia and benzene – and naphtha feedstock for crackers. ‘You can’t ship large volumes of base chemicals cost-effectively by road,’ says Richard Carter, a chemical industry consultant and former BASF manager. Health and safety regulations can also impede their transport. If barges cannot supply plants with feedstocks, they will need to reduce and eventually halt production.
It is likely that some chemicals will end up stored at large ports such as Rotterdam. ‘No one really likes to have these huge tanks with chemical products close to them, so they are based in seaports where they are safely stored,’ says Vermij.
Analysis of past low water periods suggests that 30 days of low water levels leads to a 1% decline in German industrial production. Examination of the 2018 drought, involving Saskia Meuchelböck at Aarhus University, Denmark, found that exports on inland waterways (compared to other modes of transport) fell by nearly 20% and imports by 12% during the second half of the year. Firms relying on inland shipping for imports saw exports fall by about 4%, no matter how the exports were transported. ‘The decline suggests that this is really a supply chain effect,’ says Meuchelböck. She also revealed that a shift to alternative transport remained elevated during 2018 but also 2019.
The heatwave of 2018 pushed companies to look for solutions. BASF, for example, in 2023 introduced a new low-water tanker that is wider and longer than regular Rhine barges, but with shallower draught, allowing higher loading at moderately low water levels. This can still pass Kaub when its gauge is at 30cm. But even this is little help when water levels fall to record lows. ‘Low water vessels is a trend,’ adds Vermij, but not the ultimate answer. Road and rail options can be added, but ‘building significant spare transport capacity that may only be needed for a few weeks each year is simply not commercially attractive,’ he notes.
This is a triple whammy for the European chemical sector. You’ve got high feedstock and energy costs, the crisis in the Middle East, and now low water levels from climate change
Long term, it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions and slow climate change, but authorities can help in other ways. Erosion can change the shape of the navigable channels in the river, leading to overall lower water levels. Vermij notes that, generally, there has been a lack of maintenance of waterways in the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Germany. Interventions could ‘reduce the erosive force, keep the water level in the navigation channel higher and create a more stable balance between flow, sediment transport and ecology,’ says Vermij, which could make the Rhine more resilient to low water levels.
The drought is impacting power generation. High water temperatures and low water levels have forced Hungary to shut down seven out of eight turbines on its Paks nuclear power plant along the Danube. The Cernavoda nuclear power plant is also threatened with constraints in August, as are reactors run by the French state utility EDF. Hydropower output in Serbia and Bulgaria from the Danube fell severely. ‘There isn’t enough water for cooling or driving turbines, increasing the risk of blackouts and costly electricity imports,’ notes Liz Saccoccia, water security lead at the World Resources Institute.
Similarly, BASF circulates around 5 million cubic metres of water from the Rhine through cooling pipes at the Ludwigshafen site. In the summer of 2018, low river levels and high water temperatures forced the company to adjust production, partly because it was unable to draw water for cooling. If river temperatures exceed 28°C, the water cannot hold enough dissolved oxygen and fish become stressed and can die. During summer, BASF is only allowed to return water to the river at a maximum temperature of 33°C, and only as long as the 28°C upper limit has not been reached. Water temperatures in early August hovered around 25°C.
There is little rain forecast in the Rhine catchment at the time of writing. How long rivers levels will remain low is unknown. ‘August is early for water levels that low,’ says Meuchelböck. Low water levels persisted for months in 2018, with the low point at Kaub hitting 25cm in late October.
Carter believes that profit margins of companies with chemical facilities along the Rhine will suffer as they turn off certain plants. ‘This is a triple whammy for the European chemical sector,’ he says. ‘You’ve got high feedstock and energy costs. You’ve got the crisis in the Middle East. And now you have low water levels on the Rhine from climate change.’
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