Turmoil in the banking and insurance sector has dealt a blow to the US chemical industry's hopes of a swift end to the credit crunch
Turmoil in the banking and insurance sector has dealt a blow to the US chemical industry’s hopes of a swift end to the credit crunch.
On 15 September, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the US, filed for bankruptcy protection, triggering dramatic stockmarket falls around the globe. The bankruptcy was quickly followed by the US Federal Reserve’s $85 billion (?48 billion) rescue of AIG, the country’s biggest insurance company.
The events have also reinforced anxieties about weakening economic conditions in Europe. European chemicals companies fear that the full impact of the credit crunch has still not been felt, and may be greatly compounded by the reverberations of a steep fall in oil prices, which could choke demand for bulk chemicals, as downstream customers wait for knock-on price falls.
As Chemistry World went to press, global financial markets were rallying, following the White House proposal to buy from US banking institutions up to $700 billion of the troubled mortgage-backed assets at the heart of the credit crisis.
Hopes and fears
Despite recent events, the US economy is doing better than was expected earlier in the year. In the second quarter its GDP grew by 3.3 per cent. So far it has avoided the predicted recession of two successive quarters with decreases in output.
The US government’s 8 September bailout of the two mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had raised expectations in the US chemical industry of an easing to the lending squeeze, and a revival in its two key customer sectors of housing and automobiles.
The decision by the US government to take control of the two struggling mortgage companies, which between them have liabilities of $5400 billion (?3000 billion), temporarily boosted shares in stock markets across the world. The expectation had been that the rescue would release funds for house purchases and generally ease the availability of credit.
’The rescue could not only be favourable for the housing sector but also the market for light vehicles, which is an important end-user of chemicals,’ said Kevin Swift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council (ACC), speaking after the announcement of the aid to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
’Any recovery in the housing and automobile markets could take time to work through to chemical sales,’ he added. ’It may not become evident until the first half of next year.’
US chemical companies have offset decreases in domestic demand with increases in exports stimulated by the depreciation of the dollar in foreign exchange markets. ’Chemical exports have gone up by 13-14 per cent so far, which is higher than we expected earlier in the year,’ adds Swift.
Even before the financial turmoil triggered by the Lehman Brothers announcement, Europe’s chemical industry was preparing for a further drop in demand amidst worries that some of the region’s main economies could go into recession. In its latest trends report, the European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic) has revealed a decline in chemicals output since March of this year, although sales have been rising due to an increase in selling prices. Optimism about future prospects among Europe’s chemical industry managers has been falling since June, according to Cefic.
The European Commission on 10 September lowered its estimates for growth in the EU from 2 per cent to 1.4 per cent. The UK and Spain, whose economies have been severely hit by a slump in the housing market following the credit crunch, are expected to fall into recession over the rest of the year.
More significantly, the economy of Germany, which has by far the biggest chemicals sector in Europe, is predicted by the Commission to go into recession after showing relatively strong growth earlier in the year.
’Figures for chemicals output this year, excluding pharmaceuticals, will now probably be static and could even show a slight decline,’ says Henrik Meinche, senior economist at the German Chemical Industry Association (VCI). ’2009 could be even worse for the industry than 2008. Initially Germany has not been affected so badly by the credit crunch as other European countries like the UK and Spain. The economic aftermath of the restrictions on lending has taken some time to reach us.’
The German chemicals sector is now concerned about the impact of the fall in oil prices, which could lead to a drop in orders by downstream chemicals users in the expectation that the prices for their raw materials will come down. ’Some downstream customers seem to be prepared to wait for a fall in chemical prices even though this could take some time,’ says Meinche.
There is already evidence of a sharp fall in demand across Europe for bulk polymers, with plastic converters relying on supplies from their own stocks in the hope of being able to buy raw materials later at lower than existing prices. On 19 September, BASF announed that it was cutting by 25 per cent its European production of polystyrene, due to a drop in demand. And Saudi Basic Industries Corp (Sabic) was reported in mid-September to be cutting its polyethylene output.
’This could be the beginning of a dangerous downward spiral, with downstream customers halting orders and bulk chemical producers having to reduce the operating rates of their plants,’ warns Paul Hodges, chairman of International eChem, a London-based petrochemicals consultancy. ’The outcome could be really scary if the US government’s rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac does not work and people lose confidence in the ability of the authorities to sort out the mess in the housing market.’